Khalil Shikaki: (Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and Associate Professor of Political Science at Bir Zeit University)

Mr. Shikaki started out by pointing at the fact that there is a strong interdependence between domestic Palestinian affairs, the peace process and ongoing aggression and violence. In order to reform, a peace process is necessary. Right now, the prospects for the Palestinians are grim and violence seems to have become the sole alternative for their hardships.

Clearly there are failures on the side of the PA. They failed to install a viable and durable political system instead of the system that is notorious for its corruption.

The Intifada only gave the Israeli government more reasons for its policy of cantonization and putting closures on Palestinian territories. These punishments made the situation even worse. In the Palestinian territories Fatah popularity has dropped, while Islamists groups gained popularity. This means that the Palestinian mainstream has shifted. In fact in Israel there is a similar process that results in the swing to right wing coalitions. Unfortunately, according to Shikaki, both sides still advocate that violence will pay in the end.

Mr. Shikaki points out that the PA has been paralysed structurally. There is no such thing as good governance when the Palestinians have lost their confidence in politics. At present one can speak of a "young guard" (Lebanon model) revolting against the "old guard" (PA) considering the negotiations with Israel.

A worst case scenario would be an ongoing radicalisation in expulsions and assassinations. Continuing escalation will lead to re-occupations, which again will lead to even more violence. This might result in an Apartheid system combined with deportation of Palestinians. Such developments would destabilise the whole region, starting with Jordan. Only outside intervention can stop this scenario from happening.

But there are also some opportunities for peace. There is willingness on both sides to pay a price for finding solutions to the problems. As an example Shikaki points out that 66 % of the Palestinian people find the Saudi-Plan acceptable. A second argument is the growing willingness amongst the Israeli to withdraw from the settlements. Somehow we have to create a window of opportunity.

Both parties support on one hand their recalcitrant factions and on the other hand a peace process. Here lies a crux to the matter. Europe should play a role in this under US leadership. Shikaki does not see a vital role for just Europe in the conflict.

The EU and the US have to provide principles for solutions and help to articulate what is good governance and what is viable. Considering the reform of Palestinian Authority, both the US and the EU should realise that they can only monitor this.